The Great British Media have been pushing the poll results as showing that all Leave Voters are backing the Tories whereas Only two thirds of Remainers are backing Labour as those it’s positive to the Tories. That’s one interpretation, but it ignores the possibility that to stop a Tory majority it may be necessary to vote Lib Dem in certain seats (I identified 40 – see below)  which if that’s where the Lib Dem remain vote is being polled is a cause for extremely cautious optimism. Or maybe I need to lay off the wine.

My suggestions are shamelessly based on numbers but more so than any other election this is a numbers game. It’s also clear what we stand to lose. If you voted Remain – the ONLY chance to have a People’s Vote and stop this country self-harming and becoming more divisive, selfish and idiotic is to use your vote to stop Boris Johnson walking back into Number 10 on 13th December. If you are Green and panicking about the climate emergency – the ONLY way to have any sort of chance of policies addressing this is to vote to keep the Tories out. If you care deeply about the NHS, the homelessness and social care crises, the rise in child poverty – the ONLY way to address these is to use your vote to oust a Tory, even if you are not voting for your favourite party but for the best placed one to stop Boris in your area. You are not selling out your principles by doing this – you are reinforcing them as you are acting for the good of the country. In my opinion the best solution would be a coalition between Labour and other progressive parties as it may bring positives to government from all (plus perhaps a better shot at proportional representation that doesn’t get screwed up this time). That’s just me mind. But if you care deeply about the dark place we seem to be heading we have to be cold and bloody minded and stop Tories winning seats. Hold your nose and visualise Boris Johnson making his resignation speech, a broken man. We can all bicker afterwards.

So if you don’t want the Tories or a No Deal Brexit and live in any of these places vote Lib Dem:
Bath; Brecon and Radnorshire; Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross; Carshalton and Wallington; Cheadle; Cheltenham; Chippenham; East Dunbartonshire;Eastbourne; Eastleigh; Edinburgh West; Guildford; Harrogate and Knaresborough; Hazel Grove;Kingston and Surbiton; Lewes; Mid Dorset and North Poole; Mole Valley; Montgomeryshire; Newbury; North Cornwall; North Devon; North Norfolk; Orkney and Shetland; Oxford West and Abingdon; Richmond Park; Romsey and Southampton North; Somerton and Frome; St Albans; St Ives; Sutton and Cheam; Taunton Deane; Thornbury and Yate; Torbay; Twickenham; Wells; West Dorset; Westmorland and Lonsdale; Winchester; Yeovil

Who do I vote for Election 2019-20

And finally a quick guide to 60 key marginals and how to vote there

North East Fife 2017 Election: SNP hold                Majority: 2          Suggestion: Vote SNP

As the teeniest marginal seat last time, this one’s a bit close to call and there’s suggestions the Lib Dems who were 2nd last time are making a bit of a surge. You may as well vote as you did last time and definitely switch from Labour to either SNP or Lib Dem as that should edge out the Tories.

Kensington         2017 Election: Lab gain from Con Majority: 20    Suggestion: Vote Labour
Definitely switch from Lib Dem or Green to Labour. Here’s the figures.
Kensington.jpg

Perth and North Perthshire        2017 Election: SNP hold Majority: 21      Suggestion: Vote SNP

Dudley North     2017 Election: Lab hold Majority: 22       Suggestion: Vote Labour

That UKIP vote will likely go to the Tories so a few none voters are needed as well as Libs and Greens switching to Labour so get active and encourage people to vote! Melanie Dudley is the Labour candidate so come on Dudley – vote Dudley!
DudleyNorth

Newcastle-Under-Lyme 2017 Election: Lab hold Majority: 30       Suggestion: Vote Labour

Should just take Lib Dems switching to Labour to hold off the Tory challenge here.

Southampton, Itchen     2017 Election: Con hold Majority: 31      Suggestion: Vote Labour

Over 1000 UKIP votes will probably move to the Tories so much of the combined nearly 2000 Lib Dem and Green vote needs to shore up Labour’s hold.

Richmond Park 2017 Election: Con hold                 Majority: 45       Suggestion: Vote Lib Dem

I personally know a few Labour voters who will be doing the decent thing and switching to Lib Dem in this constituency to challenge that small Tory majority. There’s only 426 UKIP votes to be added to the Tory lead so this is do-able.

Crewe and Nantwich      2017 Election: Lab gain from Con Majority: 48    Suggestion: Vote Labour
Add over 1800 UKIP voters to the Tories and you need a few non voters to sign up and a switch to Labour from Lib Dems to keep the Tories out.

Glasgow South West      2017 Election: SNP hold                Majority: 60      Suggestion: Vote SNP

Glasgow East     2017 Election: SNP hold                                Majority: 75       Suggestion: Vote SNP

Arfon    2017 Election: PC hold   Majority:92        Suggestion: Vote Plaid Cymru
To be honest whatever happens here the Tories aren’t getting in – being around 7000 votes behind either Labour or Plaid Cymru. My attitude is if it ain’t broke don’t fix it – but don’t get complacent and do make sure you vote.

Ceredigion 2017 Election: PC gain from LD           Majority: 104     Suggestion: Vote Plaid Cymru
Again Plaid Cymru and Lib Dems are both 4000 ahead of the Tories so pick one and vote for them.

Stirling 2017 Election: Con gain from SNP            Majority: 148     Suggestion: Vote SNP

Canterbury         2017 Election: Lab gain from Con Majority: 187 Suggestion: Vote Labour
No Kipper vote from last time to worry about so switch to Labour to keep the Tories out.

Airdrie and Shotts           2017 Election: SNP hold  Majority: 195   Suggestion: Vote SNP

Barrow and Furness       2017 Election: Lab hold Majority: 209    Suggestion: Vote Labour
There’s nearly 1000 UKIP votes from last time round to add to the Tories vote so you have to avoid splitting the vote and getting behind Labour to stop the Tories getting in.

Keighley 2017 Election: Lab gain from Con Majority: 239 Suggestion: Vote Labour
If Greens and Lib Dems switch to Labour you keep out the Tories bolstered by UKIP voters. Just.

Glasgow North East 2017 Election: Lab gain from SNP Majority: 242        Suggestion: Vote Labour

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
2017 Election: Lab gain from SNP Majority: 259 Suggestion: Vote Labour
Not least as the SNP candidate was suspended recently for anti-semitism.

Rutherglen and Hamilton West
2017 Election: Lab gain from SNP Majority: 265 Suggestion: Vote Labour

Lanark and Hamilton East 2017 Election: SNP hold Majority: 266 Suggestion: Vote SNP

St Ives   2017 Election: Con hold Majority: 312    Suggestion: Vote Lib Dem
The South West used to be happy hunting grounds for the Lib Dems so it would be nice to see a map of the UK with some yellow on its socks again. There’s no UKIP vote from last time – so a swing from Labour to the Lib Dems would be enough to unseat the Tories.

StIves

Preseli Pembrokeshire 2017 Election: Con hold  Majority: 314   Suggestion: Vote Labour
Add 850 UKIP votes to that Tory lead and you need a switch from Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru to boost Labour – the next best placed party here. Hold your nose and vote.

Motherwell and Wishaw 2017 Election: SNP hold Majority: 318 Suggestion: Vote SNP

Pudsey 2017 Election: Con hold Majority: 331    Suggestion: Vote Labour
Last election Labour were second with 25,219 votes whereas Lib Dem only had 1761 votes. There wasn’t a UKIP vote but this will still take an organised swing from the Lib Dems to steal this seat from the Tories. Think of Children in Need Pudsey and get swinging.

Hastings and Rye 2017 Election: Con hold Majority: 346 Suggestion: Vote Labour
As a Lib Dem voter you have to switch for best placed Labour (on over 20k more votes) to knock out the Tories.

HastingsAndRye

Chipping Barnet               2017 Election: Con hold Majority: 353   Suggestion: Vote Labour

Inverclyde 2017 Election: SNP hold         Majority: 384    Suggestion: Vote SNP

Ashfield 2017 Election: Lab hold               Majority: 441     Suggestion: Vote Labour

Bishop Auckland 2017 Election: Lab hold              Majority: 502     Suggestion: Vote Labour

Norwich North  2017 Election: Con hold Majority: 507    Suggestion: Vote Labour
It don’t mean a thing if the Lib Dems don’t swing.
NorwichNorth

Peterborough   2019 By Election: Lab hold Majority: 683 Suggestion: Vote Labour
There will be a big Brexit surge for the Tories here – and their combined votes along with UKIP in 2019 were 6960 ahead of Labour’s vote. To save the seat everyone vaguely progressive has to switch to Labour.

Peterborough 2019

Calder Valley     2017 Election: Con hold Majority: 609    Suggestion: Vote Labour

Aberconwy         2017 Election: Con hold Majority: 635    Suggestion: Vote Labour

Stroud  2017 Election: Lab gain from Con Majority: 687 Suggestion: Vote Labour

Telford 2017 Election: Con hold Majority: 720    Suggestion: Vote Labour
It would be pleasing to Telford, chosen as the launch location for the Tory Manifesto, fall and it’s do-able just courtesy of Green voters going for the Labour Green deal here as there were almost 1000 Green voters last time round.

Telford

Westmorland and Lonsdale        LD hold Majority: 777    Suggestion: Vote Lib Dem

Bedford               2017 Election: Lab gain from Con Majority: 789 Suggestion: Vote Labour

Oxford West and Abingdon        LD gain from Con Majority: 816 Suggestion: Vote Lib Dem

Ipswich 2017 Election: Lab gain from Con Majority: 836 Suggestion: Vote Labour
It’s going to take Greens and Lib Dems backing Labour to resist the Tory challenge here, backed by 1372 UKIP votes.

Ipswich

Dunfermline and West Fife 2017 Election: SNP hold  Majority: 844           Suggestion: Vote SNP

Midlothian         2017 Election: Lab gain from SNP Majority: 885 Suggestion: Vote Labour

Stockton South 2017 Election: Lab gain from Con Majority: 888 Suggestion: Vote Labour

Colne Valley      2017 Election: Lab gain from Con Majority: 915 Suggestion: Vote Labour

Na h-Eileanan An Iar 2017 Election: SNP hold Majority: 1007       Suggestion: Vote SNP

Glasgow North  2017 Election: SNP hold Majority 1060   Suggestion: Vote SNP

Edinburgh South West  2017 Election: SNP hold Majority: 1097  Suggestion: Vote SNP

Warwick and Leamington
2017 Election: Lab gain from Con Majority: 1206 Suggestion: Vote Labour

Wowzers! Not only am I impressed Labour managed to win back this seat in 2017 (pre-1997 it was staunchly Tory) but also I think Labour can probably hold this seat without swing voting as the UKIP vote is pleasingly small – although every little helps.

WarwickAndLeamington
Central Ayrshire 2017 Election: SNP hold Majority: 1267                Suggestion: Vote SNP

Pendle 2017 Election: Con hold Majority: 1279   Suggestion: Vote Labour

Penistone and Stocksbridge 2017 Election: Lab hold        Majority:1322    Suggestion: Vote Labour

Argyll and Bute 2017 Election: SNP hold                Majority: 1328  Suggestion: Vote SNP

Carshalton and Wallington 2017 Election: LD hold Majority: 1369 Suggestion: Vote Lib Dem

Lincoln 2017 Election: Lab gain from Con  Majority: 1538 Suggestion: Vote Labour

Portsmouth South 2017 Election: Lab gain from Con Majority: 1554 Suggestion: Vote Labour

Putney 2017 Election: Con hold  Majority: 1554 Suggestion: Vote Labour
Lib Dems and Greens can’t win this seat. Labour can – with their help.

Putney

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
2017 Election: Lab gain from SNP Majority: 1586 Suggestion: Vote Labour

Eastbourne 2017 Election: LD gain from Con Majority: 1609         Suggestion: Vote Lib Dem

Edinburgh North and Leith 2017 Election: SNP hold Majority: 1625 Suggestion: Vote SNP

Wrexham 2017 Election: Lab hold  Majority: 1832 Suggestion: Vote Labour